NFL Divisional Round Predictions

My bracket looked really good until Sunday. I was 2/2 on Saturday and then 0/3 on Sunday before ending 1/1 on Monday. That's a .500 record! To be fair, the first two Sunday games ended in upsets wins by the #6 seeds Bills and 49ers to send Jacksonville and Philadelphia to the offseason, respectively. The Rams held off a Panthers team that somehow always gives them trouble, and they just barely kept my championship pick alive. In fact, all 3 NFC West teams that made the playoffs are still alive (49ers, Rams, Seahawks). That's why we're the best division in football (minus the Cardinals). The Wild Card round did not disappoint, and the games will only get better as we move on. The Divisional Round is up next.

Saturday Jan. 17th

Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos (4:30 PM)

Two words: Josh Allen. I was at that back-and-forth game between the Bills and Jaguars, and it did not disappoint. Let me first congratulate Jacksonville on a great season. That place was rockin' from the very beginning of the game. I have no doubt that there will be plenty more playoff games there in the future. As for Buffalo, they showed their grit. QB Josh Allen once again willed his team to victory on a last-minute TD drive to put his team up by 3. He is a man on a mission. For once, neither Joe Burrow nor Patrick Mahomes stand in his way of the Big Game. This gives very similar vibes to that 2019 Toronto Raptors championship run when LeBron finally left the Eastern Conference and no longer stood in their way either. For Denver (much like Seattle) they've had a week off and come in fully healthy. This Broncos defense once again led the league in sacks (68) and was second-best in the league in allowing yrds/g (278.2). Coach Sean Payton and his Air Raid Offense complement their stingy defense well, but is it enough to stymie the red-hot Bills? QB Bo Nix had another great year, but I'm not as confident in his ability to outduel that efficient, refined Buffalo offense. These two teams did faceoff in last year's Wild Card round though, so maybe Nix will remember some of their coverages. Denver can get to the quarterback, but Allen is the most mobile QB around. He avoids pressure and somehow turns it into a 1st down. He and RB James Cook can run like the wind. The Broncos cannot.

My Pick: Buffalo Bills

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (8:00 PM)

We won! Wait, we won? Yep, the banged-up 49ers squeezed by the reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles by just 4 points. Winning doesn't come without a cost though, and the already injury-riddled roster lost their star TE George Kittle to a torn achilles. He will likely miss all of next season too at this point, but let's not forget how backup TE Jake Tonges was the hero in their Week 1 victory over the Seahawks. He will be starting again this week in Kittle's absence. It's quite impressive how these resilient 49ers keep on winning despite losing so many key players. However, they might be running out of gas soon, as Saturday's matchup with Seattle will be their 5th game in just 26 days. Seattle is coming off a bye week after clinching the #1 seed against San Francisco just a few weeks ago. They've had plenty of rest, and they come into this game fully healthy. QB Sam Darnold is starting his annual falloff at the end of every season, but perhaps his defense will buy him a little more time. I predict this game to be a low-scoring nailbiter, much like their previous 2 matchups, with Seattle just barely scooting by. A McCaffrey bobble at the goal-line last game limited San Francisco to just 3 points, but the defense held that mighty Seahawks offense to just 13 points in both matchups. I'm a 49ers fan, but we seem to play better when I doubt them. I will continue to doubt in hopes that they prove me wrong. With the elite defense and two-headed RB system that Seattle has though, I'm not so sure that the Niners will surprise me again. The #1 seed matters more in football than in any other sport.

My Pick: Seattle Seahawks

Sunday Jan. 18th

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots (3:00 PM)

Much like their 0-3 start to the season, the Texans took a bit to get going. QB C.J. Stroud fumbled the ball twice and threw an interception as the Steelers somehow only managed to get 6 total points of offense. After Houston's impressive defensive stands, the offense exploded with 250 passing yards from Stroud and over 150 yards on the ground with RBs Woody Marks and Nick Chubb. The defense also accounted for 12 total points (fumble and interception both returned for TDs). This game right here is why I've been high on the Texans all season long. Pittsburgh did their best to play keep away, but the pressure eventually made QB Aaron Rodgers falter. If an experienced QB like Rodgers cracks under that much pressure, it makes me wonder how young phenom QB Drake Maye will do for New England. He's had an impressive year with over 4,000 passing yards and 31 TDs to put himself in the thick of the MVP conversation. Their 14-3 record only boosts his argument. The defense, however, is what won their game against the Chargers. LA's O-Line could not stop anything. Coach Mike Vrabel's playcalling wreaked havoc on their offense and played like the Belichick defenses of old. I think this will be a much tighter matchup than their first-round opponents, but I'm riding with the red-hot Texans who just extended their win streak to 10 in a row.

My Pick: Houston Texans

Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears (6:30 PM)

Saturday's games were absolute thrillers. The Rams survived the hungry Panthers, and the Bears pulled off an improbable 21-3 comeback against their division rival Packers. I stayed up to watch both games in their entirety. It was worth every second of it. Unfortunately, both teams can't win in dramatic fashion this time, so it'll have to be the one with the most late-game heroics. With that, I haven't entirely figured out the Rams just yet. They have a pretty good O-Line with star RB Kyren Williams at their disposal, yet they continue to throw the ball 40+ times per game. Is this a lack of trust in the run game, or is it an over-trust of QB Matthew Stafford's arm? I'm inclined to believe the latter in the midst of his MVP-caliber season, but it gives me cause for concern. He makes a few mistakes each game, and the Bears will make you pay for them. The Rams' defense is only getting thinner by the day too. For Chicago, they have something special going. QB Caleb Williams looks like a young Patrick Mahomes. His ability to roll out of the pocket, lob the ball up 40 yards downfield, and connect with a receiver is uncanny to those early Chiefs offenses. Coach Ben Johnson's RB tandem of D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai have really stepped up behind this reworked O-Line. I think this game will be the weekend's best, and it will be won by the team that gets ahead early to stave off anymore crazy comebacks. This game will be one for the record books.

My Pick: Los Angeles Rams

Conference Championship Predicted Matchups

#5 LA Rams @ #1 Seattle Seahawks (NFC)

#6 Buffalo Bills @ #5 Houston Texans (AFC)

I can feel the energy in these games already. Lumen Field (Seattle) and NRG Stadium (Houston) offer some of the best home-field advantages in the league. The Rams lost by 1 point in overtime on the road in Week 16, allowing the Seahawks to bolster their chances for the #1 seed. The Texans also bullied the Bills when they came to town earlier in the season. They forced 3 turnovers and sacked QB Josh Allen 8 times! No other team has come close to doing that. I still like my Rams vs. Texans Super Bowl prediction, but we will see who walks away when the Divisional Round dust finally settles.