NBA Western Conference Predictions: 2026-27

Welcome to part 2/2 of my first edition of NBA season predictions. We learned that the Eastern Conference is from top to bottom the most competitive and unpredictable conference in recent memory. The West, on the other hand, is much more predictable. We know who the top teams are, and we know who will likely be battling out in the end. I'll give you the grand tour of every team like always, and my goal is for you to leave more informed and excited for the season by the end of it. Enjoy!

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1) San Antonio Spurs

How does a team go from 14 games under .500 one season all the way to the NBA Finals the next? High draft picks, good coaches, and a once-in-a-generation player: that's how. One of the league's most accomplished franchises is right back where they belong. They're a well-balanced team with elite players all over the court. The most impactful one, of course, is C Victor Wembanyama. He's 7'4", a consistent 25/10 player, and also averages 3.5 blocks PER GAME. That's pretty good if you ask me. His only issue, however, is staying on the court. Bringing in backup C and journeyman Luke Kornet successfully gave Wemby a break and sustained their system on the court during that time. We have to consider how depth impacts a team throughout the course of a season, and the Spurs have lots of it. This offense ultimately flatlined against the Knicks when the shots weren't falling, but second-year guys like SG Dylan Harper and SF Carter Bryant are poised for highly productive, breakout seasons on this loaded squad.

2) Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have been atop the West for 3 straight seasons, and they could easily make it 4 in a row. But, what knocks them down to the 2 seed for me is the considerable amount of turnover they dealt with this offseason. While their core is still intact, and they only upgraded from the players that departed, adding new people to the mix always messes with some of the chemistry. I think they will drop a few games that they should've won simply because of this. The Spurs, on the other hand, are virtually the same team as last year. They'll have all their rotations and load management worked out well before the Thunder can. Regardless, these teams will be trading haymakers all season long atop the Western Conference. Two guys I'm keeping my eye on for the Thunder are SG Jared McCain and C Aday Mara. Both are slated to serve auxiliary roles to start the season, but I'm anticipating both of them to break out and become key contributors before the season's end. Both OKC and San Antonio are stacked. The only question is who will come out on top?

3) Minnesota Timberwolves

While everyone is talking about the Thunder and the Spurs, the Timberwolves are quietly the most consistent team in the West. They've made the playoffs 5 years in a row, including 2 conference finals appearances, but they have yet to claim that elusive Western Conference crown. They've made some interesting moves over the years. Some I liked, some I didn't mind, and some I absolutely hated. For the record, I think they would've made it to the NBA Finals if they kept their original core together, but this front office likes to tinker with everything a bit too much. I'll stick to talking about the positives now, though. One of my favorite pickups came at last year's deadline when they acquired SF Ayo Dosunmu from the Bulls. He's a versatile player who doesn't mind coming off the bench. A true 6th Man. Another acquisition was SF/PF Jonathan Kuminga, who I think matches the explosiveness and "dog mentality" of this team perfectly. Lastly, trading for PG LaMelo Ball is the icing on the cake, and he is exactly the perimeter threat they needed. I think a lot of people are overlooking the T-Wolves, and this team is extremely dangerous.

4) Houston Rockets

We learned that the Eastern Conference has about 13 competitive teams, but the West is a bit calmer. I'd say there are 7 or 8 competitive teams in this conference. If we break it down even further, the Rockets are where the good are separated from the great. The Top 3 Western teams? Title contenders. The 4-7 teams? Competitive, but will likely come up just short. Houston is a well-balanced squad with some star talent to boot, and they're slowly improving every year despite their best players getting older. The obvious star of the show is SF Kevin Durant, who is only becoming a more prolific scorer as he ages. Other veterans and newcomers contribute their fair share as well. It seems like the perfect mix of ageless wonders and young superstars that play very well together. Tip your cap to HC Ime Udoka for that. So what holds this team back from being "great?" In all honesty, they can never get over the hump, and it feels like they're always a piece or two away from truly contending. The Rockets are always a looming threat, but I have yet to see that "A-ha!" moment from them. I need to finally see it this year, if ever.

5) Denver Nuggets

Keeping up with the theme of consistent teams, the Nuggets have been a stalwart of the NBA playoffs for nearly a decade. They peaked in 2023 when they captured their first-ever championship ring in dominant fashion. Their highly efficient system runs through one of the last remaining Guard-Big duos (PG Jamal Murray & C Nikola Jokic), and both players are prolific scorers. Their basketball IQ and chemistry are unmatched, and they remind me a lot of the John Stockton and Karl Malone dynamic we saw in Utah once upon a time. As decorated as these two players are, it seems like Denver is on the downturn ever since their 2023 climax. They're another year older, lack young depth pieces, and can't get past the second round anymore. The Timberwolves also seem to be their kryptonite as they've been sent home by Minnesota twice in the last three postseasons. So, the question is not if this team can win games, but rather how much longer can they sustain this? I like Denver to do what they always do for another year, but looking into the future worries me greatly.

6) Los Angeles Lakers

I want to say that the post-LeBron Lakers will be similar to the post-LeBron Cavs, but the Cavs didn't have another superstar to replace him with. The Lakers do, and his name is Luka Doncic. I don't think this team will be scavenging for wins in LeBron's absence. This front office didn't waste a second after he left either. In fact, one article I read says the Lakers overhauled their roster in a matter of 35 minutes when free agency opened. I believe it because they were signing anyone and everyone they could offer a contract to. Some of their best signings were PG Collin Sexton and SF Quentin Grimes, and these two are journeyman veterans looking to make the most of their new home. The other move I really liked was trading for C Walker Kessler, as their lack of a true starting center has held them back for quite some time. The new-look Lakers are at the start of something that could be very special. They're younger, faster, taller, and much more dynamic than they were just a year ago. Momentum takes time to build, but a Top 6 seed is a safe bet.

7) Portland Trail Blazers

I heavily debated putting Portland at #6, but I ultimately decided to be more conservative with this pick. There are a lot of unknowns with this team: a new coach, a new star player, and the return of franchise legend PG Damian Lillard. Their old coach got them to the playoffs and then abandoned ship for what I consider to be a worse job (coaching the Chicago Bulls), but new HC Micah Nori seems to be up for the challenge. The Blazers also went all in to acquire PG/SG Ja Morant from the Memphis Grizzlies this offseason, which I have a few questions about. 1) Is he going to be the same electrifying player he was before injury? 2) Is he going to stay out of trouble with both the league and the law? And 3) How is he going to handle playing alongside someone more famous than him? He was the star of the show in Memphis, but now he has to share the spotlight with a returning Lillard. If he can put his ego aside, this team will be a tough out. If he can't, then the locker room may sour before they ever get going. I'm going to be optimistic, and I think he and C Donovan Clingan could be quite the Guard-Big pair.

8) Dallas Mavericks

Full transparency, I don't know how anything past the #7 seed will go, but my somewhat hot take of the year is that the Dallas Mavericks return to playoff contention. It's only a somewhat hot take because this is not an unlikely scenario given how weak the West is, but there are some contingencies. First, star PG Kyrie Irving is finally returning after a brutal ACL injury that kept him out for over a year and a half. He will certainly elevate this squad if they decide not to trade him. However, there is a chance they cash in while they can to keep building for the future. Second, they need C Dereck Lively II back on the court and at 100%. If he's healthy, they'll have a well-balanced Starting 5 that can hang with just about anybody. If he can't, then they'll be platooning guys that are much shorter than him like they did last year. Lastly, can they get the most out of SG Zacchairie Rissacher after he fell down the depth chart in Atlanta? That's a lot of ifs, but if one thing's for certain, it's that SF and reigning ROTY Cooper Flagg is a gamechanger. He's poised to take the next step in Year 2, and this team could be very dangerous.

9) Phoenix Suns

I honestly don't want to put Phoenix this high, but I think it's the most logical explanation for whatever they're doing over there. They've struggled to keep their head above water after losing the 2021 NBA Finals to Milwaukee, and I think a lot of the blame falls on the ownership. Much like Minnesota, they tinker a bit too much. They had a contending team but kept fidgeting with the dials hoping to find the perfect combination. It didn't work, and the team has regressed significantly over the past five years. They massively overpaid for Bradley Beal, the Kevin Durant experiment was a disaster, and I think they held onto PG Devin Booker a bit too long. That's an article for another time, though. I like their pick-up of PF Miles Bridges to give them another scoring option, and drafting SF Koa Peat and C Khaman Maluach in recent years will pay off soon enough. As for now, though, it seems like they're stuck in transition. I think Phoenix could land higher on this list if they even slightly overperform, but I don't see them making a deep run.

10) Utah Jazz

Who could unexpectedly take the league by storm this year? My pick: the Utah Jazz. It's been a few years since the Jazz were even .500, let alone a playoff team, but I really like the roster they've put together. PG Keyonte George took a big step last year, SF Ace Bailey is in Year 2, and C Jaren Jackson Jr. was an immediate impact player when he was acquired at last year's trade deadline. Kudos to PF Lauri Markkanen for sticking it out through the dark ages of this franchise too. Those four guys alone are a solid team, but they upgraded even more when they drafted SG Darryn Peterson, who dazzled as a one-and-done as a Kansas Jayhawk last year. They also have a lot of solid depth pieces that I do not have the space to name here, but just believe me. My only question for this team is if HC Will Hardy can put all of these pieces together. It's almost as if they have too many options. Regardless, I would not be at all surprised if the Jazz climb this leaderboard and steal the #8 seed from some other very good teams.

11) Golden State Warriors

I initially had the Warriors much higher on this list, but with each day that passes, I feel less and less confident in this team. PG Steph Curry is obviously unguardable and carries this team night in and night out, but does he have any help? This is not the same team that won 4 championships in 8 years. The Splash Brothers broke up a long time ago, KD left before him, and the only one that stayed was PF Draymond Green. As important as he is to this team, he doesn't help them out when he gets ejected every other night. He's also listed as their starting center (at 6'6") due to starting C Kristaps Porzingis's lingering injuries that will keep him out indefinitely. That does not exactly give me much hope for them. I do think drafting SF Yaxel Lendeborg was the perfect selection for them, but how much of an impact will he make as a rookie when Steph is their primary scoring option? A few other guys can contribute in auxiliary roles, but this once formidable dynasty is now a sub-.500 club trying to keep up with everyone else.

12) Memphis Grizzlies

Unlike the East, the 11-15 spots don't really matter much. I don't see any of these teams putting up much of a fight, but alas, it is my civic duty as a blogger to report on them. Memphis threw in the towel and completely dismantled the team they worked so hard to build over the years. The Ja Morant and Co. era officially ended when their best players were scattered across the league for decent returns, and this front office now sits on a treasure trove of draft picks. Their recent draft selections of PF Cameron Boozer, SG Cedric Coward, and C Zach Edey are all solid, but we have yet to see them play more than a few games together. I understand that the Grizzlies are trying to rid themselves of the bad culture and attitudes they had before, but sometimes that's the edge you need to get ahead in this league. Their current rebuild is focused on high-floor, low-ceiling players that will be consistent every night. That works if you have a team full of Gerald Wallaces, but this is not that team. They need a premier superstar by the end of this rebuild if they want to have a shot at contending again.

13) New Orleans Pelicans

I don't really see the Pelicans' vision. They don't draft well, the players they do draft don't develop (no surprise), and they've held onto PF Zion Williamson for far too long. Since he was drafted in the Spring of 2019, he hasn't played more than 70 games in a season, and he averages 46 games played in an 82-game season. As they say, availability is the best ability. I'm not knocking the guy for something he can't control, but the Pelicans haven't done anything to make up for his absences. This team has been nowhere near competitive since they sent PF Anthony Davis to the Lakers many years ago. One guy that I do enjoy watching on this team is SG Trey Murphy III, and he averages about 21 points per game. If only everyone else in the starting lineup could do that! I wouldn't be at all surprised if he too is traded before the season's end. Maybe this team will surprise everyone and fight for a play-in game, but I think they need to seriously reconsider what their plan is and effectively communicate it.

14) Los Angeles Clippers

Much like how the #1 and #2 spots in this conference are interchangeable, I think the same is true for #14 and #15. That's Horseshoe Theory for ya. If you're out of the loop on the Clippers, they've been in some big trouble. The NBA slammed down what was practically a death sentence for this team after they were found guilty of circumventing cap rules through fake endorsement deals and paying a lot of money under the table. Specifically, they were fined $30 million, forfeited five 1st Round picks, and suspended both the Clippers' owner and president for a year. Yup, this team will suck for a long time. To make matters even worse, they never won anything with the team they overpaid for and wrote off. If you're going to cheat, you better win. Otherwise you just look stupid. Regarding their current roster, they have a few good players, but the team as a whole is extremely undersized and underwhelming. And with nothing to play for, what's the point of even showing up?

15) Sacramento Kings

On paper, I thought the Kings could be higher on this list, but then I heard a very convincing argument: Vegas odds. The Kings (along with a few other teams) currently have +100000 odds to win the NBA Finals. Yes, that's one hundred thousand to one odds to win the title. So, if you bet $10, you'd be a millionaire if they won! Please don't do that, though. Your $10 would be better spent at McDonald's. Things were somewhat looking up for the Kings when they drafted SG Darius Acuff Jr. and brought in PG Ben Simmons, but Simmons recently suffered an Achilles tear that will keep him out for the season. I expect Acuff to slide back into the PG role, which is more natural for him. He's already playing his heart out in Preseason. I love to see it. While I do think the Kings will win more games than they're projected to if they keep everyone together, it's more than likely that their better players are dealt for prospects or draft picks at some point in the season. Another year, another rebuild.

Predicted Playoff Bracket

1. Spurs

2. Thunder

3. Timberwolves

4. Rockets

5. Nuggets

6. Lakers

7. Trail Blazers

8. Mavericks

9. Suns (play-in elimination)

10. Jazz (play-in elimination)

Conference Champion: OKC Thunder

Predicted NBA Finals

Philadelphia 76ers vs. OKC Thunder

This is my best educated guess at the NBA Finals, and several experts I follow have predicted this same matchup. I think we all came to the same conclusions. For Philly: LeBron and Jaylen Brown will put this team over the top. For OKC: they have specifically curated this team to counter Wemby and the Spurs. However, this is one of the most competitive years I've ever seen, and there are many teams with a legitimate shot at a title. As for me, I'm going back to the well with the OKC Thunder to win it all, but it will by no means be an easy task. Who do you think will walk away as NBA champions in one of the toughest seasons ever? And as always, thanks for reading!

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